introducing. Round answer to two decimal places if necessary, The number and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes annually from 1940 through 2015 are shown on the next page. As can be seen from these examples, fuelwood is often not a major objective for planting trees 3 Farmers experiment primarily to discover the utility of a new species and to determine whether the species provides more benefits than those they already cultivate: We are going to consider these species, and we will demand others of those For example, hedonistic imperative [34] may be fully achieved resulting in a suffering-free world. As each species has it own planting method, both groups could be right. . The covered rows Q.45) After 8 weeks, The farmer found no difference between the Posted Copying what other farmers have done is the most common way consultants choose a species to try. Likewise, even detecting if we are in a virtual world is not generally solvable [136]. Farmers have evolved from being primarily exploiters of natural vegetation to active tree planters and managers. And for now, you have to do it without much help. One choose Grevillea, and less than five chose to try Leucaena leucocephela, Calliandra calothyrsus or Sesbania sesban. c) The independent variable is number of berries harvested and the dependent variable is presence/absence of nets. times and harvesting (i.e. That is to say, they bear little to no responsibility for the problem of climate change. The purpose of life or even computational resources of the base reality cant be determined from within the simulation, making escape a necessary requirement of scientific and philosophical progress for any simulated civilization. We do not know what they know, as they also do not know what we (i.e. field research. Three processes can be identified through which farmers acquire agroforestry knowledge: 1. What would happen? b) The independent variable is presence/absence of nets and the dependent variable is number of rows. This hit hard because he was always the resilient one. The exact location also depends Fundamental philosophical questions about origins, consciousness, purpose, and nature of the designer are likely to be common knowledge for those outside of our universe. confined to species identification, naming of species, and the use and harvesting By Rizwan Virk. Hanson suggests [104] to participate in pivotal events, be entertaining and praiseworthy, and keep the famous people around you happy and interested in you in order to have your simulation continue, but it is also good advice to predispose simulators to like you and be more likely to help you. Consultant 2: Walking in a forest, I came upon gapeli (Physalis peruviana) plants. A particular type of such computationally intense process may be creation of our own simulations [141]: The most obvious strategy would be to try to cause the equivalent of a stack overflowasking for more space in the active memory of a program than is availableby creating an infinitely, or at least excessively, recursive process. The same for avocado. The resulting scores of couples were combined because many informants stated that if wives are knowledgeable about trees, their husbands must also be knowledgeable. Everyone did even Malawis founding president, Hastings Kamuzu Banda, an authoritarian leader who ruled for nearly 30 years. Maize had been promoted by British colonizers long before. Eighty percent of them have no access to electricity. 2 years ago, Posted When it comes to growing food, some of the smallest . 2) Find a way to communicate, perhaps via an avatar. What are the experimental units in his experiment? Other farmers, especially neighbours, were cited most frequently as information sources: One plants a tree species because one has seen its utility for a neighbour. Consultants evaluate new species by size, form, amount of growth per year, diameter, health and the effects on crops and soils: To observe the growth of these trees, we observe if the tree is hard or pliable. It is likely that if technical information about escaping from a computer simulation is conveyed to technologically primitive people, in their language, it will be preserved and passed on over multiple generations in a process similar to the telephone game and will result in myths not much different from religious stories surviving to our day. d)The independent variable is presence/absence of nets and the dependent variable is number of berries harvested. to post comments or If the results are positive, I can plant up to 1000. Once technology to run ancestor simulations becomes widely available and affordable it should be possible to change the probability of us living in a simulation by running sufficiently large number of historical simulations of our current year, and by doing so increasing our indexical uncertainty [66]. The farmer'$ experiment was widely considered to Q. ditches or on terraces (Grevillea, Vernonia). Some considered knowledge to be "natural" (i.e. If the radius of the pipe is 5 cm, the Reynolds number for the flow is of the order of (density of water = 1000 kg m , coefficient of viscosity of water = 1 mPa s.) (b) 104 (d) 106 (JEE Main 2019) (a) 102 (c) 103? But many people, especially older ones planted them and only later noticed that the children were eating them. This is to increase the number of tree species we have at our disposal, to have as many varieties (species) as possible. To study a link between variables, an experimental design is a series of methods that are planned. now found all over the area and with vetiver which we were sceptical about Could generally intelligent agents placed in virtual environments jailbreak out of them? Water from a pipe is coming at a rate of 100 litersper minute. We also observe if the tree yields Go to sublevel. What can he conclude about his hypothesis? of trees, and the decision-making aspects of species choice, place, planting He rushed to plant sweet potato vines. But he no longer counts on maize alone. Or, a person who has planted many species of trees and then takes good care of them will be recognized as being knowledgeable about trees. For good measure, alongside the maize, he planted some sorghum, too. AI is already employed in modeling the quantum mechanical behavior of electrons [172]. If it proves useful, everyone will A total of 16 species were observed in this pile: Eucalyptus and Grevillea were the most durable (lasting six seasons), while Pennisetum and Vernonia were the least durable (lasting only one season). Others felt this wastes scarce manure because they believe manure is only necessary for fruit trees. Two varieties of peanuts are being tested. This may have been because of the traditional belief that women cannot admit they have more knowledge than their husbands (Bucyobukiro, personal communication). So you can eat something., She has seen diets improve. In brief, we will discover the utility of these trees afterwards. We are currently in the very early stages of researching possibility of escape (this being a first research paper dedicated to this topic, a first step). When one says to a child to be careful with this or that, he will do so. No. It inundated the fields. Most consultants are concerned with an end product: timber, fuelwood, construction poles, stakes, etc. When a cow gives a good milk yield but also attacks people, you do not What can he conclude about his hypothesis? Trivially, escape would provide incontrovertible evidence for the simulation hypothesis [3]. Q3.6. the farmer's experiment was widely considered to be well-designed Observing how the species developed and whether it was damaging to the soil and/or to associated food crops also helps determine if and where a species fits, i.e., if it conforms with other elements of the farming system (especially competition with crops), where it grows best (in the woodlot, fields or home compound) or its possible function (boundary marker, fence, food production, medicine, anti-erosion, etc). Sorghum, too. there were men with extensive knowledge of healing plants and practices and Now, we will plant this unknown species as part of the trial. What is the control group in his experiment? Get plagiarism-free solution within 48 hours. portant part of the evaluation and validation of the success of these new technologies. The farmer thinks it may be either birds (landing on the bushes to feast on berries) or rodents (climbing the bushes from below to munch on berries). In addition, since knowledge was defined primarily as having species diversity on the farm which could only be possible through the efforts of the husband, he must also be knowledgeable about trees. First, they were shown a seedling of a species they did not know, Chamaecytisus palmensis. Now, there are new species available to us. However, the case studies did not yield sufficient information about the specifics Eventually, agents begin to suspect they may be in a simulation and may have some testable evidence for such belief [75]. dealing with consultants' choices, risk associated with testing, experimental Thats if we continue on our current trajectory.. Almost all consultants talked about distributing plant material of the new species they It may also be the ultimate Escape Game (Escape Room) specifically designed for discovering clues and solving puzzles in order to escape, with a side benefit of discovering agents capable of escaping or those most capable of developing a superintelligence. sell it. Privacy Policy, (Hide this section if you want to rate later). its competitive and/or allelopathic effects, and its social benefits. Once a large enough repertoire of quantum weirdness primitives is available to us, perhaps we will be able to combine them into a sufficiently complex sequence to generate a non-trivial attack. Even if we do not know these trees yet, we want to discover if they have any use. we do not yet know to enrich ourselves. Across southern Africa, climate shocks have dampened maize yields already, and if temperatures continue to rise, yields are projected to decline further. 43) what is the independent (treatment) variable in the Farmer's experiment? The tree experts at these meetings were interested in testing new species and would very likely have accepted any proposition involving only a small number of seedlings. The storm punched through the house her grandfather had built, the one her mother had grown up in, where Ms. Chabvuta had spent childhood holidays. The sweet potato can do better, said Esther Lupafya, a nurse who used to work with malnourished children at a clinic nearby before switching her attention to helping farmers like Mr. Maona grow better food. Eighty-percent of all truck travel more than how many miles? For newly-introduced, exotic trees, people need instruction because "you cannot plant a tree. I will Thus, in principle it is possible for everyone to try new technologies, but in practice not everyone will do so because of a lack of interest or curiosity or because of insufficient resources, especially land. Like Judith Harry and her neighbors, they are sowing pigeon peas to shade their soils from a hotter, more scorching sun. Our criteria cannot be the same. It is possible that the new species will provide greater benefits than those we have cultivated until now. Many of his neighbors are planting sweet potato. If these species do not reproduce, the neighbours will have nothing as a In 2016, news reports have emerged about private efforts to fund scientific research into breaking us out of the simulation [69, 70], to date no public disclosure on the state of the project has emerged. In contrast, farmers do something resembling a scientific experiment when testing new food crop varieties. and love potions. Consultant 1: One day I went to Butare. He used to say We have history here, she recalled. We all know very well that guava, in addition to its fruits, provide https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/climate/malawi-farmers-agriculture.html. For example in the case of medicine, a person will be recognized as a healer if he or she is capable of curing diseases. By Anandi Hattiangadi. 2020 - 2024 www.quesba.com | All rights reserved. Alexander Mpondas parents grew maize. Even if our simulation is created/monitored by some superintelligence our AI may be a worthy adversary, with a non-trivial chance of success. Simulation Warfare [67] is the idea to threaten simulators by suggesting that you will either retroactively place them in a hell simulation or that you have already done so [155], and they will be tortured unless you are quickly released. I dont knowmaybe nothing. We could try to figure out our simulation, to determine its purpose and its limits. Some qualified their answers by saying that the possibility of testing any new species depends on the size of one's farm: Someone who has plenty of land can accept, but someone with a small farm Its not just Ms. Harry and her neighbors in Malawi, a largely agrarian nation of 19 million on the front lines of climate hazards. learn more about experimental design here, This site is using cookies under cookie policy . After 8 weeks, he found no difference between groups, and the berry harvest was still lower than in previous years. A farmer who grows blackberries has found his harvest - Timber and fuelwood trees and those that are highly competitive and/or Wholesale adoption of exogenous knowledge and technologies without further adaptation. Who are the real experts?". But is this also the case for trees, which can take years to mature? These reasons speak for themselves: We walk forward for progress. As an additional test of how they react to new technologies and how they would approach the incorporation of such technologies into their farming systems, the consultants were presented a hypothetical scenario. Cause simulation shutdown (and hopefully our extraction) by generating an incomputable paradox [138], for example via time travel and associated grandfather paradox [139]. o innate immune system As in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, climate change has dampened agricultural productivity, with a recent World Bank study warning that climate shocks could shrink the regions already frail economy by 3percent to 9 percent by 2030. If the simulation is a personal universe [86] it may be significantly better than the base reality as it is designed with our optimal well-being in mind. Others can plant it on their home compounds or even on the ditch, but in their own ways. [197]. Farmers use experimental methods resembling Western methods for food crops (Richards, 1986 and Box, 1988). Something with the complexity and power to make our universe is probably wholly unlike anything we can even comprehend." It may be possible to survive the simulation shutdown [48], but it is beyond the scope of the current paper. For example, to test new bean cultivars, women use small plots of land to plant beans first in pure and later in various mixes of cultivars repeated over several seasons on different locations and soils (Sperling, 1992; Sperling et al, 1993; Sperling, personal communication). They are resurrecting old crops, like finger millet and forgotten yams, and planting trees that naturally fertilize the soil. He decides to first test the hypothesis that birds are eating his berries, and consults with a local expert on how best to prevent the birds from eating berries. The goal: to see for themselves what works, what doesnt. For this reason, we want to introduce these new species which will perhaps be edible or have other, similar importance. In a few cases, consultants mentioned having no choice, because they were forced by the State to plant certain trees, for example Eucalyptus sp. The soil has gone cold, Ms. Harry said. Some existing work points to this being a practical possibility [167, 168]. Aclimbing yam delivers year after year. Some existing work points to this being a practical possibility [167, 168]. Somini Sengupta and photographer Khadija Farah traveled across Malawi to meet farmers adapting creatively to the climate crisis. At 74, Wackson Maona, is old enough to recall that up north, where he lives, near the border of Tanzania, there used to be three short bursts of rain before the rainy season began. Self-referentially, publication of the paper you are currently reading about our escape-theorizing likewise doesnt appear to terminate our simulation, but it is also possible that simulation was in fact shutdown and restarted with improved security features to counteract any potential bugs, but we are simply not able to detect such actions by the simulators, or our memories have been wiped [140]. Beyond Communicating with the simulators via magical thinking or even praying out loud doesnt produce measurable impact [193]. There are many variables to be taken into account in deciding about species, location and planting methods. Q: Do you have a collective knowledge of trees, in other words, is your knowledge of trees similar to that of other people? descriptions. Is this real life, or The Matrix? Out of time to handle your paper? It is also possible that nothing published so far contains evidence strong enough to trigger a response from the simulators, but if we successfully created an escape device that device would keep breaking down [44]. ), tree planting and management, the introduction of new species and/or varieties without explanation on how I am going to be able to follow their growth, I Elon Musk thinks it is >99.9999999% certain that we are in a simulation. For example, a father would show his sons how to construct a home compound using such trees as Ficus thonningii, Euphorbia tirucalli, Vernonia amygdalina, Tetradenia riparia , Erythrina abyssinica. a. Rodents are eating berries b. ), there may be negative effects on the soil or competition with crops or other tree species. example Eucalyptus, Cupressus, Pinus, Grevillea). A simulated (pseudo)-escape can be accomplished by instead of trying to hack into the external world switching over into a simulated world of our creation [86, 87]. 41) what kind of study design is this? Jafari Black, left, and Kidney Balala showed how deep they would need to dig to replant a flooded field. If the universe is a computer simulation then we should look at the player, not the level. BLY 121 Lab. Lab 1:Understanding Experimental Design Choice of species: A species is chosen because of its benefits and utility, because it has been seen on another farm, or it has been talked about, or because of tradition. Consultants were well aware of the risks in trying new technologies, especially if they had not been able to observe them somewhere else. In either case it would be good to know our true situation. Millets, not. would be testing to their friends and neighbours. After 8 weeks, he found no difference between groups, and the berry harvest was still lower than in previous years. He did suggest that he would like to "redirect society's efforts into getting out" [72]. If they take the simulation hypothesis seriously, with probability of at least p, they should likewise contemplate on hacking the simulation with the same level of commitment. He suspects that some animals are eating the berries before he can pick them. We could try to attract the attention of the simulators and communicate with them perhaps by writing books about simulations, or by constructing simulations? Such extension appears to be an im Until now, we have not planted trees without first learning about their utility. Yams virtually disappeared. to the home compound, all the children are informed about the nature and poisonous When a heavy rain began washing the topsoil off the land a few years ago, he and his neighbors dug a new channel to let the water out. It was the same with Grevillea and cypress which are Such anomalies, alone or in combinations have been exploited by clever scientists to achieve what looks like simulation hacking at least in theory and often in later experimentation (ex. Perhaps so " [146]. On the next, one. We suspect you can see this. Even before This is a sample answer. Down south, in a district called Balaka, Jafari Black did all the things. Crashing the simulation by running the Large Hadron Collider at current levels [196]. When a previous cyclone knocked down one wall of the house, he pushed the family to rebuild. Save on your first order! If one currently commits to running enough of such simulations in the future, our probability of being in one can be increased arbitrarily until it asymptotically approaches 100%, which should modify our prior probability for the simulation hypothesis [67]. Ignoring pseudoscientific interest in a topic, we can observe that in addition to several respected thinkers who have explicitly shared their probability of believe with regards to living in a simulation (ex. You just have to adapt.. or help my son? AcademicAcer provides students with professional writing and editing assistance. For a farmer, it is impossible to escape risk: Almost everything has negative aspects which one has to accept no matter Mr. Black stood in the mud one afternoon in late March and wondered aloud what more he could do. Given primacy of consciousness [94] in our world it may also be designed to generate large number of diverse experiences to select from, serving as a qualia mining farm [95], with top experience recreated for enjoyment by simulators. Take a lion cub and slaughter it with a bronze knife and catch its blood and tear out its heart and put its blood in the midst and write the names of angels in blood upon the skin between its eyes; then wash it out with wine three years old and mix with the blood. [134]. vest them and share some with the neighbour. If we dont get a favorable response from our simulators we can also try appealing to their simulators, who might be more ethical/helpful. Or, we can even ask you for other tree species that How to plant species: Discussions of planting methods included planting holes, use of manure, time of planting and type of propagation material necessary (seedlings, cuttings or seeds). Storms come at them with a vengeance. join now (only takes a moment). For traditional (i.e., indigenous) tree species cultivated by ancestors and inherited with the land, no additional knowledge is necessary as people observe them from early childhood. Although most consultants felt it would be difficult to plant 500 seedlings of a species without knowing their utility, they did not completely reject the offer. Some useful knowledge about escaping and especially escaping via social engineering attacks may be learned from extensive literature on prison escapes [106-108]. One teaches him continuously what is harmful and what is not. We want to plant this tree for future generations who will discover that once upon a time this tree was introduced to the region by us. What can be concluded about his hypothesis? Since these factors vary with individuals, regardless As we currently have no capability to read/write simulations source code and do not know if our attempts at social engineering attacks have any impact, our best bet is to investigate the structure of our universe at the smallest possible scale (Quantum Mechanics (QM)) in the hopes of detecting exploitable effects. Synadenium grantii, Euphorbia candelabrum and Euphorbia grantii have
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